Africa Cup of Nations 2015 - Sat There Thinking about the group matches...

Equatorial Guinea had just 67 days to prepare to host the 2015 African Cup of Nations after Morocco pulled out as hosts in November last year due to fears of Ebola spreading. And, they've pulled it off! On the field, the Equatoguinean national team has given the home fans plenty of reasons to be cheerful. It has progressed to the quarter-finals (the first time since the 1992 tournament) and are playing with bounce and confidence. Fans presenting the man of the match award is also something that has to catch-on:

Group stage is over... Highlight of #afcon2015 has to be the man of the match award ceremonies. My top four... pic.twitter.com/pPXI7eJrrJ
— John Bennett (@JohnBennettBBC) January 28, 2015

No hat-tricks?

In short no. The top scorer(s) have only scored two goals. And, there are four of them. On the topic of hats though, the excitement for the quarter-finals has sadly been overshadowed by the bizarre circumstances in which Guinea (not Mali) have progressed to them. Namely, their name was taken out of a hat. Surely it could have been decided on the pitch? Extra-time? Anyone?

There are a number of points I will discuss in this post from goals to... well, goals (and more). I don't aim to be exhaustive, and there will be another post to follow (with more stats).

I have been sitting there thinking…

Goals have been in short supply

This tournament has averaged 1.88 goals per game. 45 goals in 24 games. That’s not sufficient goal-scoring entertainment to keep our appetites whet, right?

I thought about the apparent dearth of goals and wondered whether the group stages of this year’s tournament are an exception or not? Comparing the goals in the group stages scored in this year’s tournament to the past four we see a couple of things: 1) this year’s measly 45 goals in the group stages is the lowest figure over the past five tournaments; 2) there are fewer goals scored in the group stages of this tournament more generally and this has been a trend over the past few tournaments.

Data source: whoscored.com created by @SatThereThinkin

Why would that be? Could be: teams playing more conservatively, poorer quality finishing, better defending, difficult conditions – the list is endless. My favoured explanation is a combination of more conservative play and generally poorer quality (but more of that in my next post).

In addition to the dearth of goals…

There were a lot of draws

13 to be precise. That’s 54% - over half – of the games played at this tournament so far have ended as a stalemate. 10 of those 13 draws ended 1-1.

The high number of draws is not exceptional, however. In the 2013 tournament there were also 13 draws in the group stages. Six of those ended 1-1. To be fair, the 2013 tournament had more nil-nil draws. So, in that sense, we have been lucky this time around.

I’ve been sitting there thinking and scratching my head over why it should be the case that over half of the games played have ended as a stalemate.

Maybe it is to do with the fact…

Football is … a game of two halves

Cliché? Sure. True? Definitely! This year’s tournament has seen far fewer goals in the first-halves of games. 29% of goals scored have been scored in the first half. A far larger chunk of goals have come in the second-half. A full 71% of them. This could be down to teams being slow starters, poor finishers or it could be down to solid defensive play. Or something else. Or all of the above.

Data source: whoscored.com created by @SatThereThinkin

There have been as many goals scored past the 75^th minute as there have been in the first-halves of the games, 13. Sure, goals are more likely to be scored in the dying embers of the game as team’s pile on the pressure, fatigue plays its role and the combination of heroics and mistakes usually guarantee goals. However, in this year’s tournament over 70% of the goals scored have come in the second-halves of the games.

What insights does this information bring? Perhaps teams could set out to score two goals in the first-half and then rest a little bit. But if your auntie had… and all that.

This year’s ‘what the hell moment’ …so far

Was it South Africa’s capitulation against Algeria? To take the lead, smash a penalty off the cross bar and concede three goals in the space of slightly more than 15 minutes is certainly madness. However, the Bafana showed much of the same mercurial tendencies in their remaining games. Their meltdown was therefore not that exceptional. What about Gervinho’s sending-off (for which he apologised profusely over Twitter - see Tweet)? Both good contenders.

Je tiens a presenter toutes mes excuses à la nation Ivoirienne, a mes coequipiers , aux supporters et aux organisateurs de la CAN
— Gervinho (@GervinhOfficial) January 21, 2015

I think for me the ‘what the hell moment’ goes to lots being drawn to decide whether Guinea or Mali progress to the quarter-finals. It is madness the matter of progressing to the next stage of the tournament can be decided in a hotel room instead of on the football pitch. Which, is of course, where a football tournament is won and lost. Or, is it?

The goals of the tournament...so far

There are a few contenders despite the lack of goals. I have chosen what I consider to be the top 3. My criteria for selection was to based on three considerations: 1) the objective quality of the finish, 2) the build-up play, and 3) the emotional significance. For those reasons, here are my top 3:

3) Moussa Sow's 93rd-minute winner for Senegal against Ghana (Ghana 1 - 2 Senegal, FT) 

what I love about this goal is that it was the cherry on top of Senegal's comeback. A long hoof up the park met by some great interplay by Sow et al. Simple, direct and effective.

2) Emilio Nsue's opener - for the tournament and for Equatorial Guinea - against Congo (Equatorial Guinea 1 - 1 Congo, FT)

I love the through ball and the guided finish. The elation in the celebrations is also a big reason this has to be one of the goals of the tournament.


1) It could only be: Mandla Masango's brilliant volley for South Africa, which he scored after picking himself up from the floor, against Ghana (South Africa 1 - 2 Ghana, FT)

Take a bow son.