The Belgian Jupiler Pro League: what do we know before Gameweek 4? A look at the stats

Gameweek 4 of the 2015/16 JPL season begins this evening when Club Brugge entertain Kortrijk at the Jan Breydel Stadium. While we are only 3 games into the season some questions are already being asked of the bigger teams, and rightly so. As the league table stands, Brugge are outside the top-6, Genk have looked poor and disorganised since winning 3-1 against OH Leuven in gameweek 1, and Anderlecht - yet to be convincing at all - share the top spot with surprise stories so far STVV and KV Ostende.

I'm taking this opportunity to go through some of my statistical observations of the season so far in an attempt to shed some more light on what we have seen.

To begin with, I use Ben Mayhew's (@experimental361) 3 'shot-matrices' to illustrate a few key trends:

1) Generally speaking, the teams that have shot more than their opponents are further up the table.

The chart below plots the number of shots JPL teams have taken per game on the x-axis, and the number of their opponents' shots they have faced per game on the y-axis. As a rule of thumb, the teams in the bottom right quadrant are in the "sweet spot": they outshoot their opponent and allow their opponents to shoot less than the average. 

2) Most teams have not yet put their shooting boots on.

In an attempt to measure the effectiveness of JPL team's attacks (offense), the chart below plots the number of shots the teams take to score 1 goal against the number of shots they take per game. Gent have yet to find their shooting boots - no surprise as two of their 3 goals scored have come from the penalty spot. Standard, Charleroi & Club Brugge are also all yet to really excel in front of goal. Interestingly, Waasland Beveren and Westerlo have been efficient at converting their shots into goals, but are not getting enough shots in. An interesting outlier is Mouscron, stranded up there: ineffective in front of goal but taking slightly above average number of shots per game, so they can take some reassurance that they are doing the right thing, they just need to improve their accuracy!

3) Standard and Anderlecht's defensive frailties should be watched (and if playing against them, exploited).

While Anderlecht & Standard's defences deal with a below average number of shots per game, they are tending toward a leaky defence, in the case of Anderlecht, and have a leaky defence, in the case of Standard.

4) More possession does not = victories (duh!)

In the chart below I've plotted the average percentage of possession JPL teams have of the ball, and their Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR), which is calculated by dividing a team's shots on targets by the sum of their shots on targets and their opponents shots on target. If a team has a SoTR value of over 0.5, they take more shots on target than their opponent, and vice-versa. The teams in green - ie the top 6 - are mixed: 3 of them tend to have more possession in games, 3 tend to have less, but what they all have in common is that they take more shots on target than their opponents. An interesting one to analyse from the standpoint of Belgium's bigger teams is Club Brugge: they tend to have more possession than their opponents but have so far conceded more shots on target than they have taken: B- for Club Brugge. Must do better.

More to follow, big debt of gratitude for the statistical and graphical inspiration from the wonderful @experimental361.