It now appears to be a formality: Anderlecht’s Mitrović will join Newcastle United for somewhere in the region of €18 million. At 20 years of age, Mitro has two full seasons of experience in Belgium’s top flight as well as over 20 games in the Champions League and the Europa Cup combined. Yet, because he is joining from the Belgian Jupiler Pro League (JPL), perhaps some will ask ‘is he really worth €18 million’? Is it a risk for the Magpies to take on a striker from the Belgian league?
Newcastle fans will be hopeful Mitro is someone:
- who can score regularly
- who will contribute positively to the team
- who will prove to be a good bit of business, should they sell him on (as all teams outside the top-4 inevitably do...)
I’ll try to look into each of those points individually.
Will Mitrović score regularly for Newcastle?
Mitro’s goalscoring record over the past two JPL seasons is illustrated in the table below:
Games Played
Mins Played
Goals Scored
Assists
Goals + Assists
Goals p90
Goals / Assists p90
69
5694
36
11
47
0.569
0.743
On average, Mitro scored every other game in the JPL, which is pretty regularly. Additionally, he was involved in an Anderlecht goal (by either scoring or making an assist) once every 121 minutes of game time.
Last season Mitro was in fact the top scorer in the JPL, scoring 20 times, playing 37 games. It is important to provide some context to assess how impressive that record actually is.
Below, I’ve used data from Eurosport.fr to compare the basic statistics of JPL top scorers over the past 5 seasons. Alongside Mitro, you’ll find two other pretty big names: Carlos Bacca and Ivan Perišić.
Name
Ivan Perišić
Jeremy Perbet
Carlos Bacca
Hamdi Harbaoui
Aleksandar Mitrović
Club
Club Brugge
Mons
Club Brugge
Lokeren
Anderlecht
Season
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
Age at 1 Jan of latter year
21
28
26
28
20
Games Played
37
35
35
36
37
Mins Played
3027
3029
2967
2678
3184
Goals
22
25
25
22
20
Assists
10
4
6
1
4
GoalsPer90
0.654
0.743
0.758
0.739
0.565
Goals or Assists Per90
0.951
0.862
0.940
0.773
0.678
Both Perišić and Bacca scored more goals in a single season than Mitrovic did. Both of them did not just score more, but they also contributed more assists and therefore were involved in more goals for their team than Mitro was. One way of reading this is that Bacca and Perišić were better team players than Mitro. Both Bacca and Perišić's records show that they averaged higher contributions to their teams’ goals (by scoring and/or making an assist) per 90-minutes than Mitro did. They were both, on average, involved in pretty much a goal a game. Mitro’s goals or assists per 90, however, is not at all disrespectful at 0.68 – meaning he averaged either scoring or making a goal once every 132 minutes.
It is also important to bear in mind that Mitro became the top scorer in the JPL at the age of 20 – only Perišić was roughly comparable. At 20, Mitro certainly has a few years to develop before hitting the sweet-spot.
So, yes Mitro can score goals. Plenty, in fact: if Newcastle got 20 goals from him this coming season, I am sure most St James' Park regulars would be over the moon. However, (and it bears repeating) when compared to other forwards who have been top scorers in the JPL, Mitro contributes fewer goals to the team overall. And, he makes these goal scoring/assisting contributions less frequently than peers.
So, will he contribute positively to the team?
I've answered this question from both sides: how Mitro will contribute to Newcastle, and how the team may influence his game.
Mitrović scores a lot of headed goals, so naturally he would enjoy a regular supply of good crosses. Unfortunately for Mitro, last year’s Newcastle side recorded the lowest cross accuracy (number of accurate crosses / total number of attempted crosses) in the EPL. However, this could be a matter of not having had a target man, rather than being unable to hit the target(man). Mitro will certainly offer Newcastle’s attack a new dimension with his aerial ability.
In a similar vein, Mitro could be characterised as a penalty box striker. He will rejoice in finding out that Newcastle’s ‘danger zone’ chance creation is pretty high. Using Paul Riley’s fantastic ‘Expected Goals’ data (here) Newcastle shot 51 shots on target from the danger zone – defined as the area 10 yards from the goal-line in length by the 6-yard wide. This was 8th highest in the league and indicates that Newcastle create an above average number of chances in the penalty box.
On the downside, Newcastle generally makes fewer passes per game than the average EPL team. They also averaged below 50% possession in the EPL last year. Added to that, they exhibited above average bad touches/control and number of times dispossessed in games (all data from WhoScored.com). I raise all of these points because some strikers can tend to put their head down if they don’t receive enough of the ball in games, and that normally makes them less effective. I saw more than a handful of games last season where Anderlecht were frustrated by their opponents (particularly in the play-offs) and as a result Mitro began to drift away from the game. If he does not get the service, his head starts to dip and this negatively affects his performance. All the stats I have mentioned indicate that Newcastle tend to have less possession than their opponents, and when they do they have above average lapses while in possession (or, unforced errors, if you zill). This could bode poorly for Mitro’s morale especially if they play him as a lone striker.
Lastly, is he worth the money then?
Time will tell, obviously. Below, I’ve used data from transfermarkt.com to provide context for the reported sum Newcastle has paid Anderlecht for Mitro. I filtered the transfermarkt data down to show a list of the top fees paid for strikers under 21 in the English Premier League (EPL), and have shown a select bunch. In 1st place is the record fee paid for Raheem Sterling. I skip a few places to then show #9 Romelu Lukaku who moved from Anderlecht to Chelsea in the 2011/12 season for a whopping €22 million (unadjusted for inflation). As context, this shows that teams in England have paid more for relatively more inexperienced and unproven strikers from Belgium (and, more specifically, Anderlecht). Mitro’s move to Newcastle would put him in tied 10th largest fee (again, not adjusted for inflation) paid for a striker, under the age of 21, to the EPL.
Rank
Name
Age
Date
Team
Sum Paid (€mill)
1
Raheem Sterling
20
2015/16
Manchester City
62.5
9
Romelu Lukaku
18
2011/12
Chelsea FC
22
10
Arjen Robben
20
2004/05
Chelsea FC
18
11
Robbie Keane
20
2001/02
Leeds United
18
12
Cristiano Ronaldo
18
2003/04
Manchester United
17.5
13
Ryan Babel
20
2007/08
Liverpool FC
17.25
14
Thierry Henry
21
1999/00
Arsenal FC
16.1
15
Obafemi Martins
21
2006/07
Newcastle United
16
Conclusions
If Mitro can bring his solid goal scoring record from Belgium with him to the EPL then he will be a good signing for Newcastle. Newcastle’s summer spending may yet increase further and Mitro, alongside all the other new arrivals will need time to gel. However, combined with Georginho Wijnaldum’s arrival, Mitro's arrival could be big news. It certainly seems as if Wijnaldum and Mitro have improved upon the Newcastle attacking options of last year.
How Steve McClaren handles Mitro will certainly be interesting especially if he rotates his squad regularly. Mitro’s near ever-present record for Anderlecht last season provides no indication about his reaction to being dropped – he has an infamous attitude so being dropped will naturally cause friction – so it will be interesting to see how that is handled by the player and the rest of the team.
Newcastle certainly have bought someone who will improve their team. I look forward to seeing one of the JPL’s brightest stars test himself out in the EPL. I wish him all the best.
Will Mitrović score regularly for Newcastle?
Mitro’s goalscoring record over the past two JPL seasons is illustrated in the table below:
|
Games Played |
Mins Played |
Goals Scored |
Assists |
Goals + Assists |
Goals p90 |
Goals / Assists p90 |
|
69 |
5694 |
36 |
11 |
47 |
0.569 |
0.743 |
On average, Mitro scored every other game in the JPL, which is pretty regularly. Additionally, he was involved in an Anderlecht goal (by either scoring or making an assist) once every 121 minutes of game time.
Last season Mitro was in fact the top scorer in the JPL, scoring 20 times, playing 37 games. It is important to provide some context to assess how impressive that record actually is.
Below, I’ve used data from Eurosport.fr to compare the basic statistics of JPL top scorers over the past 5 seasons. Alongside Mitro, you’ll find two other pretty big names: Carlos Bacca and Ivan Perišić.
|
Name |
Ivan Perišić |
Jeremy Perbet |
Carlos Bacca |
Hamdi Harbaoui |
Aleksandar Mitrović |
|
Club |
Club Brugge |
Mons |
Club Brugge |
Lokeren |
Anderlecht |
|
Season |
2010-2011 |
2011-2012 |
2012-2013 |
2013-2014 |
2014-2015 |
|
Age at 1 Jan of latter year |
21 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
20 |
|
Games Played |
37 |
35 |
35 |
36 |
37 |
|
Mins Played |
3027 |
3029 |
2967 |
2678 |
3184 |
|
Goals |
22 |
25 |
25 |
22 |
20 |
|
Assists |
10 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
4 |
|
GoalsPer90 |
0.654 |
0.743 |
0.758 |
0.739 |
0.565 |
|
Goals or Assists Per90 |
0.951 |
0.862 |
0.940 |
0.773 |
0.678 |
Both Perišić and Bacca scored more goals in a single season than Mitrovic did. Both of them did not just score more, but they also contributed more assists and therefore were involved in more goals for their team than Mitro was. One way of reading this is that Bacca and Perišić were better team players than Mitro. Both Bacca and Perišić's records show that they averaged higher contributions to their teams’ goals (by scoring and/or making an assist) per 90-minutes than Mitro did. They were both, on average, involved in pretty much a goal a game. Mitro’s goals or assists per 90, however, is not at all disrespectful at 0.68 – meaning he averaged either scoring or making a goal once every 132 minutes.
It is also important to bear in mind that Mitro became the top scorer in the JPL at the age of 20 – only Perišić was roughly comparable. At 20, Mitro certainly has a few years to develop before hitting the sweet-spot.
So, yes Mitro can score goals. Plenty, in fact: if Newcastle got 20 goals from him this coming season, I am sure most St James' Park regulars would be over the moon. However, (and it bears repeating) when compared to other forwards who have been top scorers in the JPL, Mitro contributes fewer goals to the team overall. And, he makes these goal scoring/assisting contributions less frequently than peers.
So, will he contribute positively to the team?
I've answered this question from both sides: how Mitro will contribute to Newcastle, and how the team may influence his game.
Mitrović scores a lot of headed goals, so naturally he would enjoy a regular supply of good crosses. Unfortunately for Mitro, last year’s Newcastle side recorded the lowest cross accuracy (number of accurate crosses / total number of attempted crosses) in the EPL. However, this could be a matter of not having had a target man, rather than being unable to hit the target(man). Mitro will certainly offer Newcastle’s attack a new dimension with his aerial ability.
In a similar vein, Mitro could be characterised as a penalty box striker. He will rejoice in finding out that Newcastle’s ‘danger zone’ chance creation is pretty high. Using Paul Riley’s fantastic ‘Expected Goals’ data (here) Newcastle shot 51 shots on target from the danger zone – defined as the area 10 yards from the goal-line in length by the 6-yard wide. This was 8th highest in the league and indicates that Newcastle create an above average number of chances in the penalty box.
On the downside, Newcastle generally makes fewer passes per game than the average EPL team. They also averaged below 50% possession in the EPL last year. Added to that, they exhibited above average bad touches/control and number of times dispossessed in games (all data from WhoScored.com). I raise all of these points because some strikers can tend to put their head down if they don’t receive enough of the ball in games, and that normally makes them less effective. I saw more than a handful of games last season where Anderlecht were frustrated by their opponents (particularly in the play-offs) and as a result Mitro began to drift away from the game. If he does not get the service, his head starts to dip and this negatively affects his performance. All the stats I have mentioned indicate that Newcastle tend to have less possession than their opponents, and when they do they have above average lapses while in possession (or, unforced errors, if you zill). This could bode poorly for Mitro’s morale especially if they play him as a lone striker.
Lastly, is he worth the money then?
Time will tell, obviously. Below, I’ve used data from transfermarkt.com to provide context for the reported sum Newcastle has paid Anderlecht for Mitro. I filtered the transfermarkt data down to show a list of the top fees paid for strikers under 21 in the English Premier League (EPL), and have shown a select bunch. In 1st place is the record fee paid for Raheem Sterling. I skip a few places to then show #9 Romelu Lukaku who moved from Anderlecht to Chelsea in the 2011/12 season for a whopping €22 million (unadjusted for inflation). As context, this shows that teams in England have paid more for relatively more inexperienced and unproven strikers from Belgium (and, more specifically, Anderlecht). Mitro’s move to Newcastle would put him in tied 10th largest fee (again, not adjusted for inflation) paid for a striker, under the age of 21, to the EPL.
|
Rank |
Name |
Age |
Date |
Team |
Sum Paid (€mill) |
|
1 |
Raheem Sterling |
20 |
2015/16 |
Manchester City |
62.5 |
|
9 |
Romelu Lukaku |
18 |
2011/12 |
Chelsea FC |
22 |
|
10 |
Arjen Robben |
20 |
2004/05 |
Chelsea FC |
18 |
|
11 |
Robbie Keane |
20 |
2001/02 |
Leeds United |
18 |
|
12 |
Cristiano Ronaldo |
18 |
2003/04 |
Manchester United |
17.5 |
|
13 |
Ryan Babel |
20 |
2007/08 |
Liverpool FC |
17.25 |
|
14 |
Thierry Henry |
21 |
1999/00 |
Arsenal FC |
16.1 |
|
15 |
Obafemi Martins |
21 |
2006/07 |
Newcastle United |
16 |
Conclusions
If Mitro can bring his solid goal scoring record from Belgium with him to the EPL then he will be a good signing for Newcastle. Newcastle’s summer spending may yet increase further and Mitro, alongside all the other new arrivals will need time to gel. However, combined with Georginho Wijnaldum’s arrival, Mitro's arrival could be big news. It certainly seems as if Wijnaldum and Mitro have improved upon the Newcastle attacking options of last year.
How Steve McClaren handles Mitro will certainly be interesting especially if he rotates his squad regularly. Mitro’s near ever-present record for Anderlecht last season provides no indication about his reaction to being dropped – he has an infamous attitude so being dropped will naturally cause friction – so it will be interesting to see how that is handled by the player and the rest of the team.
Newcastle certainly have bought someone who will improve their team. I look forward to seeing one of the JPL’s brightest stars test himself out in the EPL. I wish him all the best.
