AFCON 2015: More on the Semi-Finals & Predictions

Here is another look at the teams in the Semi-Finals:

Team	Shot Differential pg	Shot OT Differential pg	Goals conceded pg	Goals scored pg	Goals per Shot OT	Goals Conceded per Shot OT
DRC	2.5	0.75	1	1.5	0.2857	0.22222
CIV	-0.75	0	0.75	1.5	0.4286	0.21429
GHA	-1.5	1.25	0.75	1.5	0.5455	0.50000
EQG	-3.75	-1	0.5	1.25	0.3333	0.10526

From left-to-right:

• Shot Differential per game (pg): this statistic is the number of shots a team takes minus the number of shots their opposition takes, per game. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) tend to take 2.5 shots per game more than their opponent whereas Equatorial Guinea take 3.75 fewer shots per game than their opponent.
• Shots on target (OT) per game: this statistic is the number of shots on target a team takes minus the number of shots on target their opposition takes, per game. Ghana takes 1.25 shots on target more than their opponent, per game, on average, whereas Equatorial Guinea takes 1 fewer shot on target than their opponent per game.
• Goals conceded per game: self-explanatory really, it ranges from the DRC's concession of one goal per game to Equatorial Guinea's much better 0.5 goals conceded per game. Of course, this is a bit of a misnomer, it is much more like they concede a goal every other game.
• Goals scored per game: again, self-explanatory. The DRC, Ivory Coast and Ghana all score around 1.5 goals per game, on average. Equatorial Guinea scores at a slightly slower rate than the other teams.
• Goals per shot on target: this statistic is the number of goals the team has scored in the tournament divided by the number of shots on target they have taken. Ghana has the highest rate at 0.54 which translates as scoring a goal for every 2 shots they hit on target. Ghana has hit only 11 shots on target in this tournament - the lowest out of the Semi-Finalists - but has a better conversion rate than the other teams. The Ivory Coast are not far behind them and the lowest again is Equatorial Guinea.
• Goals conceded per shot on target: this statistic is the number of goals a team has conceded divided by the number of shots on target they have defended against in the tournament. Ghana is again the leader in this statistic with a rate of 0.5, which translates as for every two shots its opponents have fired on target on their goal, one is a goal. The best rate belongs to Equatorial Guinea at 0.1, so teams have taken around 10 shots before they scored against Equatorial Guinea.

What can we take from these numbers? ** past performance is not a guide to the future, or is it?

DRC vs. Ivory Coast (Wednesday)

If form is any guide the DRC will outshoot the Ivory Coast in total shots. As for shooting on target, the DRC will marginally outshoot the Ivory Coast again. It is likely both teams will score, especially as the DRC averages conceding a goal per game. If the Ivory Coast can outshoot the DRC, limit their shooting and maintain their 0.43 goals-per-shot rate, it will be the Ivory Coast's game. 

Predicted Winner: Ivory Coast

Equatorial Guinea vs. Ghana (Thursday)

If FIFA rankings are any guide, this should be easy for Ghana. There are 81 places between the two team's rankings. However, Equatorial Guinea take some momentum into this game. They also don't concede many goals per shot on target against them. On average, the Equatorial Guinea sees 4.75 shots on target against them per game, but concedes at a rate of 0.10. However, Ghana don't take much encouragement to score. And, judging by the excellence of Atsu, the Ayews and Appiah, let alone whether Gyan is fit for the game, Equatorial Guinea will have their work cut-out.

Predicted Winner: Ghana